On August 15th, the domestic futures market opened with mixed gains and losses. Among them, the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated weakly in a narrow range, with the main contract price at 20320 yuan as of publication, a slight decrease of 0.61%.
On the macro level, the US CPI in July was higher than the previous level, but lower than expected. The market's expectations for another pause in interest rate hikes have increased, but the strengthening of the US dollar and poor domestic economic data have put pressure on zinc prices.
From a supply side perspective, Founder's mid-term futures pointed out that the unresolved situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to fluctuations in European energy prices, coupled with a significant pullback in zinc prices compared to the beginning of the year, and there is uncertainty in the resumption of local smelting production. However, the peak electricity consumption in China during the summer, coupled with overheated weather this year and low precipitation in western regions, has raised expectations for power and production restrictions in some regions.
In terms of demand, the weak recovery in China continues, and the shortage of domestic demand is more prominent. As for the main downstream of zinc, infrastructure, automobiles, and household appliances have maintained a certain growth rate, but real estate has dragged on more. Considering the slow issuance speed of special bonds in the first half of the year, it is expected that there will be no more growth in infrastructure in the second half of the year. The policy tone at the end of July is relatively positive, but there are still doubts in the market about when the specific policies will be implemented and the effects after implementation.
Looking ahead to the future, under the expectation of the golden nine silver ten peak seasons, the Shanghai zinc market is still expected to rebound rapidly after a pullback; Considering supply pressure, the rebound space for zinc is still limited, and viewed as a low volatility, with a short-term support level of 20000 yuan/ton. If it is confirmed that the subsequent peak season is not prosperous, the zinc price may fall again and lower forward